Posted by John Publius Jr. on June 1st, 2008 — in Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Blog, Democratic Party Rules
On Saturday, the Democratic Party’s Rules Committee finally settled on the new rules for seating delegates from Florida and Michigan.
The Rules Committee reduced its punishment of the Florida and Michigan state Democratic Party organizations. Originally, the Rules Committee stripped these states of all their delegates as a sanction for violating the rule of holding primaries before Super Tuesday. See my earlier posts in the category of “Democratic Party Rules“ for background information and opinions on the Florida and Michigan delegate controversies.
Also, read this summary from Yahoo! News and CNN’s summary.
New Rules and Numbers as of Saturday, May 31st:
- Basically, all delegates from Florida and Michigan will go to the Democratic Party National Convention in Denver, August 25-28, and participate in the formal nomination of the party’s presidential candidate. Each delegate from these states will have half a vote, instead of a full vote, granted to all the other delegates.
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- Clinton picks up delegates: 105 from Florida, 69 from Michigan, with a total of 87 votes.
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- Obama also gained delegates: 67 from Florida, 59 from Michigan, with a total of 63 votes.
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- Adding the Florida and Michigan half-vote delegates changes the “magic number”. 2118 is the new “magic number” of total delegates needed to win the nomination; the old number was 2,026.
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- The new rules move back the goal post for Barack Obama. Obama previously needed only 48 more delegates to clinch the nomination, now he needs 67.Â
****** LATEST STANDINGS ************************
*Delegate Count: Obama needs 67 more delegates to clinch the nomination.
Obama: 2051 (total), 1724 (pledged), 327 (super delegates)
Clinton: 1887 (total), 1586 (pledged), 291 (super delegates)
Edwards: 13 (total), 13 (pledged), 0 (super delegates)
* Updated May 31, 2008, according to CNN.
2,118 delegates required to win the nomination.
*****************************************************
Is everybody happy?
Of course not. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) and its Rules Committee have supporters of both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Both the Clinton and Obama camps came to Saturday’s meeting with proposals to resolve the Florida and Michigan disputes. Neither side got exactly what it wanted, but that’s the nature of compromise. Clinton gained more delegate votes than Obama, which was significant because the Rules Committee had the option to stick with its original decision to NOT seat any delegates from Florida and Michigan.
Nevertheless, the Clinton campaign continues to raise objections and argues that Clinton should have received an additional four delegates from Michigan. Here is an official statement from Clinton campaign operatives Harold Ickes and Tina Flourney:
Today’s results are a victory for the people of Florida who will have a voice in selecting our Party’s nominee and will see its delegates seated at our party’s convention. The decision by the Rules and Bylaws Committee honors the votes that were cast by the people of Florida and allocates the delegates accordingly.
We strongly object to the Committee’s decision to undercut its own rules in seating Michigan’s delegates without reflecting the votes of the people of Michigan. The Committee awarded to Senator Obama not only the delegates won by Uncommitted, but four of the delegates won by Senator Clinton. This decision violates the bedrock principles of our democracy and our Party.
We reserve the right to challenge this decision before the Credentials Committee and appeal for a fair allocation of Michigan’s delegates that actually reflect the votes as they were cast.
Conversely, Obama supporters argue that they were quite conciliatory toward the Clinton campaign. As reported in Yahoo! News:
Allan Katz, a Rules Committee member and Obama supporter, said the Obama campaign had enough votes on the committee to support the campaign’s proposal to split the delegates 50-50 in Michigan. Ultimately, the campaign agreed instead to support the compromise negotiated by the Michigan Democratic Party as a way to resolve the matter.
“The ironic thing is Obama had the majority of that committee,” Katz said. “The Obama campaign wants to move on and compromise. We did not muscle our way through it. It was a wise decision from a well run and wise campaign that will reverberate.”
Once Barack Obama clinches the nomination and exceeds the necessary total of 2118 by a comfortable margin, maybe his campaign will simply give Clinton the four disputed delegates as yet another gesture of magnanimity to further unite the Democratic Party. Of course, some day Hillary Clinton may finally accept that Barack Obama is the 2008 presidential nominee of the Democratic Party.
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Posted by John Publius Jr. on May 23rd, 2008 — in Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Blog, Democratic Party Rules
John McCain is not officially the nominee of the Republican party, he is only the “presumptive” nominee now. The party nominee is not the official nominee until a majority of delegates at the party convention officially vote for the candidate.
Soon Barack Obama will be the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party. Hillary Clinton must decide how long she will keep her party in limbo.
Hillary Clinton continues to fight for every last delegate. She will certainly end up with the best second place showing in modern party nomination history. But as Mitt Romney knows, politics does not award “silver medals”.
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Posted by John Publius Jr. on March 20th, 2008 — in Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Blog, Democratic Party Rules
After a series of discussions and proposals about holding “do-over” elections in Florida and Michigan, it now appears highly unlikely that any “do-overs” will happen.
Link to Yahoo News summary: Michigan delegate split debated
For more background, see these previous Election Referee posts:
Yes, let’s have a “do-over” for Florida and Michigan
AÂ Quick Guide to the Democratic Party Rule Book
Referee whistle: against the Democratic National Committee, illegal block, 10 yards
As I have stated before, this Florida/Michigan mess reflects poorly on the Democratic Party. We have seen much finger-pointing as people blame the state parties, the Republican-controlled Florida legislature, and the Democratic National Committee, especially the party chairperson, Howard Dean.Â
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Posted by John Publius Jr. on March 14th, 2008 — in Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Blog, Democratic Party Rules
Here are some important stories that have developed over the last few days:
- Geraldine Ferraro resigned from the Clinton campaign in the aftermath of her much criticized remarks on Obama and race. Link to Financial Times article.
- Barack Obama officially won more delegates in the Texas primary-caucus contest on March 4th. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote. It took over one week to tabulate the final delegate counts based on the March 4 results. It will take even longer to determine how to divide the final 67 Texas delegates. Link to Time Magazine article.
- Barack Obama is cutting into Hillary Clinton’s lead among super delegates. Link to Bloomberg article.
- Michigan: “do-over” primary is increasingly likely. Link to MyWay article.
- Florida: “do-over” is increasingly unlikely. Link to Washington Post article.
Preview of Upcoming Election Referee Posts:
- Old Time Religion (Part 1): Barack Obama’s Pastor Problem.
- Old Time Religion (Part 2): John McCain’s ties to controversial religious leaders.
- Democratic Party Crossroads: Big Tent or Little Boxes? Where is the Democratic Party headed in 2008?
- Tony Rezko corruption trial and its impact on Barack Obama.
- Much more!
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Posted by John Publius Jr. on March 11th, 2008 — in Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Blog, Democratic Party Rules
The political football game between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama is very likely to go into “overtime”. As the primary calendar marches on, it is now virtually impossible for either candidate to amass enough “pledged” delegates to reach the magic 2,025 delegate score. (See the bottom of this article for a Quick Review of the Rules).
The current pledged delegate count*:
Clinton: 1,200
Obama: 1,347
Total: 2,547
To be determined: 706**
* As of March 10, 2008, according to CNN. Other news sources show different numbers which make it impossible for either candidate to reach the 2,025 delegate count via pledged delegates.
** Note: if there is a “do-over” for Florida and Michigan, the numbers will change, but the basic scenario of super delegates deciding the nominee will remain almost certain.
The remaining primaries and caucuses will determine the remaining 706 pledged delegates. Mathematically, neither Obama nor Clinton will gain the nomination through pledged delegates only.
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Posted by John Publius Jr. on March 5th, 2008 — in Referee whistle, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Blog, Democratic Party Rules
The Democratic Party primaries in Florida and Michigan earlier this year did not count. Now many people, including Democratic Party officials, are discussing the prospect of scheduling new primaries or caucuses in Florida and Michigan.
Referee whistle: against the Democratic National Committee, illegal block, 10 yards.
Yes, let’s have a “do-over” for Florida and Michigan.
The Democratic Party punished Florida and Michigan for moving their states’ primary dates to dates before Super Tuesday. The punishment was that these states would not have delegates at the convention.
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Posted by John Publius Jr. on March 5th, 2008 — in Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Blog, Democratic Party Rules
The most interesting primary season in U.S. history promises to continue after Hillary Clinton won three of four state contests last night.
I like how some of these days have nicknames, and March 4th was “VOTR” day (Vermont, Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island).Â
The March 4th Democratic primary and caucus results are still coming in. Complex state rules for awarding delegates make it difficult for election officials to quickly determine the correct delegate counts.
March 4th VOTR day was an opportunity for the Obama campaign to effectively end Hillary Clinton’s campaign. Instead, Clinton scored decisive victories in Ohio and Rhode Island. Obama won Vermont decisively. Then there is Texas.
The Texas hybrid primary-then-caucus is likely to result in a split decision, with Clinton winning the popular vote of the Texas primary, and Obama winning the Texas caucus. The final delegate “score” will be very close, and is already taking a while to calculate.
It seems that every headline about this year’s Democratic Party presidential campaign requires a footnote, some important clarifications, qualifications, and parenthetical details. Based on what the number-crunchers finally decide, the VOTR final “score” will probably not be Clinton 3, Obama 1. The final score will be more like: Clinton 2.5 states, Obama 1.5 states.
Of course, it’s all about DELEGATES!Â
In any case, March 4th VOTR day was another riveting chapter in the 2008 campaign story. Over the last week or so, a popular discussion has been, “Should Hillary end her campaign now?”. VOTR day put that question to rest.
Now the question is, “How long will this go on?”.
And more questions:
“Will this go all the way to the convention?”
“What about Florida and Michigan?”
“How will this impact the Democratic Party?”
Election Referee will address these questions soon.
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Posted by John Publius Jr. on February 29th, 2008 — in Referee whistle, Hillary Clinton, Blog, Democratic Party Rules
Referee whistle: silent, no foul
Yahoo News reports: “Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign has raised the possibility of a challenge to Texas’ primary and caucus rules just days before the contest, drawing a warning against legal action from the state’s Democratic Party.”
Full story: Clinton may challenge Texas vote rules
The seminal article for electionReferee.com is this article: A Quick Guide to the Democratic Party Rule Book. The end of this article includes a section specifically on the Texas Democratic Party rules as “a case study in confusion”.
We will see how this plays out. The Clinton campaign is right to point out that these Texas rules are a mess. It is certainly in their right to pursue legal action, but it seems unlikely this will go anywhere. The Texas Democratic Party also has the right to set any rules it wants as long as the rules do not violate U.S or Texas law, and these rules probably are legal.
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Posted by John Publius Jr. on February 26th, 2008 — in Blog, Democratic Party Rules
“I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat.” - Will Rogers
In 2008 we are witnessing the most interesting and exciting presidential nomination process in U.S. history. I wrote this article to help people better understand the Democratic Party rules and the impact these rules have on determining who the Democrats will nominate for President in 2008. I have injected a few opinions into this article to point out that confusing rules can lead to voter unhappiness.
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