Posted by John Publius Jr. on July 10th, 2008 — in Bob Barr, Libertarian Party, 3rd Party Politics, John McCain, Blog
Will 2008 be the year for an insurgency of Libertarian politics? This could be the achilles heel of the John McCain campaign. The Republican coalition is breaking apart at least to some extent. The tremendous political success of Ronald Reagan is a distant memory. Reagan united all conservatives and Republicans while winning over much of the center and even some Democrats. George W. Bush successfully brought together enough of this coalition to win in 2000 and 2004, but the many problems of the Bush administration have alienated voters across the political spectrum.
Some conservatives even view Bush as a “liberal”. An interesting and popular sentiment is expressed as: “I didn’t leave the Republican Party, the Republican Party left me.” Many conservatives are angry at the exploding federal budget, budget deficits, and federal debt. The new Department of Homeland Security especially represents expansive government contradictory to the conservative bedrock principle of smaller government. Additionally, some conservatives are unhappy with the Iraq War. Some viewed the invasion of Iraq as bad policy from the beginning, while others are more critical of the handling of the war.
Ron Paul ran a provocative and exciting campaign in his bid for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination. Without winning a single state and accumulating only 35 delegates (out of 2,380), Texas Congressman Paul nevertheless galvanized a highly enthusiastic following and won over 1.16 million votes (see this page from CNN for a good summary of Ron Paul’s performance in the primaries). Ron Paul was especially popular among younger conservatives critical of the Iraq War and angry that the Bush administration continued to expand the size of the federal government. While technically a Republican, Ron Paul advocates Libertarian Party principles: limited government, low taxes, and modest foreign policy.
Coincidentally, once Ron Paul’s campaign effectively ended, former Republican U.S. House Representative from Georgia, Bob Barr emerged as the Libertarian Party candidate for President in 2008. Some of the energy and excitement for Ron Paul’s candidacy has transferred to the Barr campaign. A small but dedicated constituency for Libertarian politics hopes to shake up the U.S. political landscape in 2008. The most recent Zogby Poll released on July 10th shows Bob Barr at 6% nationally (with Obama leading McCain 44% to 38%, a 6% margin). Review the Zogby electoral map to see that Bob Barr has significant support in several swing states.
Unlike the other unsuccessful Republican candidates for president this year, Ron Paul has NOT endorsed John McCain. Many supporters of Ron Paul and Bob Barr hoped that Ron Paul would be Bob Barr’s running mate, but this did not happen. Wayne Allen Root is the Libertarian Party’s vice-presidential candidate in 2008. The selection of Root has not been well publicized. I never heard of him or even knew if Bob Barr had selected his running mate until I did some research to write this paragraph. I cannot even find information about Root on Bob Barr’s official campaign website. Libertarians, if you want more success, you must do better than this!
Ron Paul has yet to endorse either John McCain or Bob Barr. According to this article in the Atlantic Journal Consitution:
Paul has criticized McCain, and while Paul has not endorsed Barr, he recently praised his former House colleague.
Barr, Paul told CNN, “talks our language, so I do really believe that he can have a very positive effect in this campaign and let the people know that limited government is a very, very important message.”
Some Ron Paul supporters are still undecided about how to cast their vote in November. An official endorsement from Ron Paul likely would help Bob Barr’s campaign tremendously.
If the Libertarian Party can make a splash in 2008, that would represent a minor “revolution”, to use the terminology of the Ron Paul campaign (and the title of Paul’s new book, Revolution: a Manifesto). Bob Barr’s campaign has the potential to break off a sizeable portion of the traditional Republican vote. It could signal the beginning of a real third party in American politics: a party strong enough to influence elections for the foreseeable future and end the stranglehold of the U.S. two party system.
Please see our previous articles in the Topic of 3rd Party politics and vote in our opinion polls on 3rd Parties.
Update, July 13, 2008: After I first posted this article, the website for Bob Barr’s campaign added a new link on their home page, “Meet Wayne Allyn Root“. Also, Time magazine published this article: “Libertarians: A (Not So) Lunatic Fringe“.
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Posted by John Publius Jr. on May 26th, 2008 — in Green Party, Bob Barr, Libertarian Party, Ralph Nader, 3rd Party Politics, Blog
Some of the most passionate citizen voices in U.S. politics gravitate toward “third” parties.
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I remember a printed political cartoon I saw when Ross Perot was running for president in 1992. A man was watching the news with his wife and he says, “America needs a third party”. Then the news reports that Ross Perot is running for President as a third party candidate. The man says to his wife, “America needs a fourth party”.
The U.S. has a number of “third” parties. The Libertarian Party and the Green Party have shown the most staying power over recent years. Ross Perot (running as the Reform Party candidate) gained about 19% of the popular vote in 1992, but did not win a single state, and therefore also had zero electoral votes.
This website will include some discussion of third parties. In 2008 our focus is on the Democratic and Republican candidates, unless a viable 3rd party candidate emerges. Those involved in 3rd party politics are quick to say, “The whole U.S. political system is not fair.” Election Referee tends to agree, but this a long discussion. This article is a first glance at this discussion.
Quick History
In the 20th century, there were several examples of significant third party efforts.
In 1912 Theodore Roosevelt ran for President as a candidate for the Progressive Party, more popularly known as the Bull Moose Party. Roosevelt won over 27% of the popular vote and over 16% of the electoral votes. TR came in second place behind Democrat Woodrow Wilson, but ahead of the third place Republican incumbent President William Taft.
Racist “third party” segregationist presidential campaigns had some success winning a few Southern states, and therefore, some electoral votes. In 1948 Strom Thurmond won four states and in 1968 George Wallace won five states.
The United States political system has been stuck in a two-party model throughout its history. The “modern” U.S. political party system really began in the 1828 presidential campaign (partly in response to the controversial 1824 election). The Democratic Party candidate Andrew Jackson defeated John Quincy Adams of the “National Republican” Party. By 1836, the Whig Party solidified into the alternative to the Democratic Party. Whig candidate William Harrison won the presidency in 1840, and the Whigs enjoyed success and power until the Republican Party replaced the Whigs.
The last truly successful third party was the Republican Party. The Republican Party emerged as a force in 1856. The Republican Party organized a new coalition by essentially replacing the Whigs and bringing into its new big tent other political forces, including Free Soil Party members, abolitionists, and disillusioned Democrats. The Whig Party did not keep up with the times and seemed irrelevant, while the Republican Party addressed the slavery issue head-on. In 1860 the Republican Abraham Lincoln won the presidency and the Republican Party won a significant number of seats in both the Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives. Since the emergence of the Republican Party, no 3rd party has won the presidency or even had a major impact beyond one or two election cycles.
Grassroots Party vs. Cult of Personality
Third party efforts usually fall into one of two categories: grassroots party or cult of personality. Sometimes we need the benefit of time to truly assess what is happening.
Teddy Roosevelt and Ross Perot won a significant number of votes and appeared to tap into popular sentiment. However, without these specific personalities leading their parties, Roosevelt’s Progressive/Bull Moose party and Perot’s Reform party never gained traction. Additionally, these were “top down” efforts. While Roosevelt and Perot gained significant vote totals, their parties did not win any significant number of seats in Congress. They are simply anomalous though interesting blips in the course of presidential election history. These third party efforts demonstrate important voter dissatisfaction with the two party system of that time, but they failed to coalesce into a more powerful, lasting force in U.S. politics. Ultimately, the voters receded back into the two party system or dropped out, disillusioned with the electoral process.
Socialist presidential candidates (Eugene Debs, Henry Wallace, Norman Thomas) won enough votes over the years to be a footnote in election history, but little more. They perhaps impacted policy to some extent by helping to publicize and popularize important progressive (and often much needed) social reforms such as workers rights and social security.
The Libertarian Party and the Green Party are by far the most important third parties over the last few elections.
Ralph Nader’s candidacy in 2000 is the most recent impactful third party campaign. In 2000 Ralph Nader ran as a Green Party candidate and won 2.73% of the popular vote. This was significant because this candidacy combined a popular figure at the top of the party’s ticket along with some true grassroots organization. I find it very strange that in 2004 and 2008, Ralph Nader has abandoned the Green Party. I have read on the Green Party’s website that they wanted Nader to be their candidate in 2008. I have contacted the Nader campaign to ask why he is not running under the Green Party, but I never got a response. Except for Nader’s 2000 run, the Green Party has not gained any significant number of presidential votes. The Green Party has won some local government seats and has some minor influence in a few small areas scattered around the U.S.
The Libertarian Party has enjoyed a bit a staying power since 1980 when their candidate Ed Clark received just over 1% of the popular vote. Ron Paul led the Libertarian ticket in 1988 but won only 0.47% of the vote. In fact, since 1980, no Libertarian candidate has won more than 1%. Like the Green Party, Libertarians occasionally win some local elections.
Although their ideologies differ in very many respects, the Green and Libertarian parties have much in common. They each have legitimate grassroots organizations strong enough to have national conventions. They consistently have presidential candidates and also run in some local elections. Their political philosophies are more coherent and consistent than the big two parties. Libertarians and Greens view the two-party system as thoroughly and inherently corrupt and unfair. They usually think the Democratic Party is essentially and fundamentally the same as the Republican Party; the two big parties differ only in minor nuances. Despite this, they occasionally work with candidates in either major party who are like-minded on at least some issues. Sometimes between elections, Libertarians and Greens participate in campaigns to influence Congress (and local government) on issue-specific legislation.
Will a Third Party ever emerge as a powerful force?
Probably, some day. The American people actually want a third party according to many opinion polls. There are many obstacles. It is difficult for a third party to gain the necessary media attention. Getting on the ballot in 50 states is a difficult task. Although many people want more political choices, there is no consensus on one third party. If the Green and Libertarian parties merged they might have some synergy and gain some traction, but this would never happen because they have polar opposite views on many fundamental issues.
While the Green and Libertarian parties think the two big parties are too similar, many others see too vast of an ideological divide between the Democrats and Republicans. One scenario is a “centrist” third party designed to split off votes from both the Democratic and Republican parties. Ross Perot did this to some extent, but didn’t build a meaningful organization to sustain this movement beyond Perot’s personality. The suggested Michael Bloomberg presidential candidacy fits this model, but it never got off the ground. Centrist John Anderson won 6.6% of the vote in 1980, but no lasting centrist party emerged.
The most realistic scenario for a new powerful party to emerge is that one of the two parties suffers an irreconcilable divide or a large implosion. We have not seen this in American politics since the demise of the Whig Party and subsequent emergence of the Republican Party. The two big parties today often seem corrupt, entrenched, and out of touch with the American people. Sometimes these parties seem to stand for nothing while also being so opposed to each other that they never get anything done. The world keeps changing so quickly, are the two parties adequately prepared to address the future? Maybe we’re due (or even long over-due) for a shake up.
A long-term successful third party needs a strong grassroots organization that can run well-known national presidential candidates every four years while also winning elected seats in state, county, and local government. The fact that Ralph Nader and the Green Party are running two separate presidential campaigns seems ludicrous to me. There may be good reasons for this split, but none of us care, and it sure does not inspire many people that either Nader or the Greens are good alternatives. Successful politics typically involves coalitions and synergy.
The U.S. political system presents major obstacles for a third party. Unlike many democracies in the world, the U.S. does not have a parliamentary form of government. Parliamentary government enables multiple parties to gain at least some power much more readily than in the U.S system. The astronomical costs and necessary resources of running a national (and often even local) campaign prohibit most third party efforts from breaking through and into the mainstream. Many critics believe that very powerful corporate, media, and corporate-media interests prop up both parties.
Viability is a major threshold and “catch-22” for the third parties. The major media will give only very limited coverage to third party candidates this year. Even websites like this one will NOT devote much effort to discussing any presidential candidates except for John McCain and Barack Obama in 2008’s general election. Also, the election debates do not include third party candidates unless they are “viable”. The media networks and two big parties decide what “viable” means, and it’s usually something like 10% support in major polls. In 1992 Ross Perot broke through the two party and media lock down. He was viable because he was “viable”.
Winning isn’t everything. Third parties often enjoy a “gadfly” role while publicizing and pushing for their position on their favorite issues. They tend to like ideological purity, except for the “centrist” model, which is the opposite. Many argue that Ralph Nader lost the election for Al Gore in 2000 and Perot’s candidacy gave the election to Bill Clinton in 1992 and (less significantly) in 1996. At least theoretically, a third party may not win, but they can help decide who wins and loses.
In 2008, the only possibly relevant third parties are the Libertarians, the Greens, and the Ralph Naders. Libertarian candidate Bob Barr may attract enough potential Republican voters to give a headache to the McCain campaign, especially if Ron Paul and supporters of his “revolution” join with the Libertarians. The Greens and the Ralph Naders will likely annoy some Obamaniacs in places like Madison and Berkeley, but it’s unlikely they will impact the outcome in any state.
Perhaps the best possible third party and third party candidate is named “None of the Above“. It would be interesting if voters had this choice on the ballot.
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