McCain and Obama Are Both Flip-Floppers, So What?
In Defense of Flip-Flopping:
Imagine an American leader with a specific strategy to fight a foreign enemy and save New York City. Then this leader meets with leaders from France and instead adopts a very different strategy, the French strategy. As we celebrate the 4th of July, remember that this flip-flop by George Washington in 1781 enabled the fledgling United States to defeat the British in Yorktown, Virginia.
Abraham Lincoln was a big time flip-flopper, especially on the issue of slavery. Instead of holding to strong principles on the most important moral and social issue of the 19th century, Lincoln’s position on the slavery issue continually shifted according to the political winds. After many years and much tragedy, Lincoln finally abolished slavery for politically and militarily strategic reasons. Also, thank goodness Franklin D. Roosevelt finally flip-flopped on his position regarding fighting Hitler and the Nazis in 1941.
Changing your mind is not necessarily bad. History is very interesting and teaches us important lessons, but I’m much more interested in the future. What will a candidate really do if elected president? I want leaders who evolve and grow. The tragic mess of the Iraq War is largely the result of a myopic, inflexible, obstinate mindset.
Perhaps the greatest “invention” of all time is the scientific method. Science has the humility to start with the premise that we don’t know the truth, and perhaps we never will. We continually test theories and measure, learn and revise. Effective government is an ongoing process. Government is far from pure science, but the concept of learning and re-evaluating is essential. Each day brings new challenges and shifts in economic and demographic reality. Policies that made sense in 1984 are often not good choices today. Of course, in wartime, policies need to change instantly as “events on the ground” dictate and as our understanding deepens.
The Political Problem of the Flip-Flop:
Don’t misread my “defense of flip-flopping”. Just because flip-flopping is not always bad does not mean it’s always good. It is always a political risk in that it raises questions of character. People accuse candidates of not having strong principles, opting out to do only what is politically expedient, and of lying, breaking campaign promises, not being trustworthy.
Hearing that a candidate is a flip-flopper persuades some knee-jerk voters. All politicians are flip-floppers. John McCain’s “Straight Talk Express” and Barack Obama’s “New Politics” are good campaign slogans. Each accusing the other of “flip-flopping” is easy, but hopefully a worn-out tactic and meaningless label in 2008. Often the flip-flop accusation itself is politically expedient. Emblematic of the dumbing down of political discourse, sound bites and meaningless labels replace intelligent discussion of difficult and intricate policy.
Recent Flip-Flop Disasters:
We have two big examples of the flip-flop label impacting recent elections. In the 1988 presidential campaign, Republican George H.W. Bush promised, “Read my lips, no new taxes”, and then during his presidency, Bush raised taxes. This especially angered some Republicans who either voted for Ross Perot or stayed home for the 1992 election. This flip-flop was one factor enabling the election of Bill Clinton. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry recorded this most unfortunate sound bite: “I actually did vote for the $87 billion [in funding for the Iraq War] before I voted against it.” Republican operatives used this in their larger negative portrayal of Kerry as being unreliable. The flip-flopper label stuck on Kerry and hurt his public image.
McCain/Obama Flip-Flops: 2008 Greatest Hits:
We are going to hear much about candidate flip-flopping until November. The flip-flop label hurts the most when it sticks to just one candidate. Both McCain and Obama have each accumulated sizeable lists of flip-flops. Attacking each other as a “flip-flopper” makes as much sense as criticizing their opponent for being a Senator.
Basically, flip-flopping doesn’t really matter unless: 1) people really care about that specific issue, and 2) a candidate clearly breaks a promise important to many voters. Another scenario is an established pattern of flip-flopping in which a candidate rapidly changes positions on many issues. Neither McCain nor Obama have flip-flopped in a way that will hurt them significantly.
Here’s a short list of some well-publicized McCain and Obama flip-flops and a quick review of why each doesn’t matter.
Obama on Campaign Financing: in 2007 Obama promised to “aggressively pursue an agreement with the Republican nominee to preserve a public financed general election”. Obama clearly flip-flopped on this one when he announced last month that he would opt out of public financing. This means Obama will not accept the $84 million of federal government funds available to him. In doing so, he is exempt from fund-raising limits. Obama has kept his promise to not accept money from PACs (political action committees) and corporations. Individuals are limited to donating a maximum of $2,300. Few people follow the intricacies of campaign financing rules. Those who actually follow this realize that Obama’s new approach saves the federal government $84 million. Also, the problem with campaign financing is precisely that PACs and corporate interests have too much influence. By accepting only small donations from individuals, Obama’s campaign exemplifies what campaign finance reform laws strive to achieve. Reference.
McCain on Privatizing Social Security: John McCain has recently taken both sides of this controversial topic, as quoted in the Baltimore Sun:
Two weeks ago, Mr. McCain said, “I am not for privatizing Social Security. I never have been. I never will be.” Funny that categorical claim, too, because according to a Wall Street Journal story March 3, here’s what Mr. McCain said just three months ago: “As part of Social Security reform, I believe that private savings accounts are a part of it - along the lines of what President Bush proposed.”
This is an important issue that divides people, but McCain has time to clarify where he really stands. He may anger some Republicans/conservatives if he clarifies that he is against privatization. Given recent stock market performance, support for privatizing Social Security is dwindling.
McCain and Obama cut ties with controversial religious leaders: Both McCain and Obama had embraced religious leaders who ended up being campaign liabilities because of their inflammatory statements and fiery rhetoric. Both presidential candidates flip-flopped by ultimately denouncing, renouncing, and rejecting their former allies. Very few voters will change their vote because of they dislike these rejections.
McCain on Off-Shore Drilling: McCain has been a long-time opponent of offshore drilling, but recently (three weeks ago) changed his position in favor of offshore drilling. This is like many flip-flops: people are much more concerned about the actual issue than the act of flip-flopping. McCain is hedging his bet that his new position will be more popular than his previous opposition to offshore drilling. Reference.
Obama on Iraq: This is a case in which no flip-flop happened. Obama has been remarkably consistent on the issue of the Iraq War. Some anti-Obama operatives (e.g., Fox News) are attempting to manufacture a controversy simply by accusing Obama of flip-flopping. This is compounded by complaints from a few left-wing “purists” who abhor any suggestion of nuance and especially any move toward the political center. Example (Barack at Risk by Tom Hayden).
Barack Obama has often repeated his well-crafted sound bite that “we need to be as careful getting out of Iraq as George Bush was careless getting in.” Obama has always been clear that he wants a quick but orderly withdrawal from Iraq based on the recommendations of the generals in the field.
Obama has recently re-iterated his belief that U.S. policy in Iraq needs flexibility based on the advice of commanding officers. Some have jumped on this statement to characterize it as a “flip-flop”. Attempting to couple the flip-flop label with a key issue is a good campaign tactic, but it is much more effective if it is based on at least a shred of truth. The hope must be to alienate some of Obama’s strong anti-war supporters. In all fairness, this tactic should hurt only the credibility of the false accusers. Reference.
More McCain and Obama Flip-Flops:
- McCain on Immigration
- Obama on FISA
- If I left out one of your favorites, please post it in the comments.
The Move to the Center: Politics 101 teaches that once the primaries are over, the presidential nominees from each party move to the political center and away from respective left and right extremes. As John McCain and Barack Obama attempt to win over the political center, we will see more real flip-flopping and accusations from both of the candidates and their campaigns. The bottom line is that you can’t simply vote against the flip-flopper: all candidates flip-flop and maybe that’s even a good thing.
The left-wing purists are a problem for Obama, and the right-wing purists are a problem for John McCain. This sounds like a good topic for my next article.
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Comment by Lisa
Posted on July 7, 2008 at 6:39 am
I love the “so what” remark .. I have used it many times myself and to myself. Big deal!! We all flip flop and they all lie Period. And we know it - so what. It will all come out in the wash -the election-. I don’t know anyone whose mind is not already made up - so watch out for the yellows .. whoever they are. Terrific job and a lot of work on this article. Keep it up - I keep learning. But if McCain and his ilk get in again - Rove’s Third term as they say … I guess I’ll move to India.
Comment by Cristina
Posted on July 9, 2008 at 5:44 am
Thanks for a good and clarifying insight on the subject. I´m from Spain and wanted to be updated on the American election. Your article was just what I was looking for. Good job!
Comment by Dean
Posted on July 10, 2008 at 9:46 pm
In my field I write code - a list of statements attempting to describe what should be. It’s amazing what a challenge it is to stay consistent with myself - any discrepancy shows itself as a bug to remind me of just what you said - we are all flip-floppers. We can imagine the straighest of lines, but our fingers can’t control the pens ! So, yes, bring on the debates about real issues. Thanks for another great post !
Comment by Michael Dickel
Posted on August 19, 2008 at 7:12 am
I agree that the flip-flop label is more propaganda than value. The real issue with the campaign is financing. Like flip-flopping, they are both guilty of large amounts of money coming through bundling and the influence of industry-wide donations. See “Life as Usual in the Board Rooms and Back Rooms” for an analysis of the striking similarities in the candidates’ funding sources.