Posted by John Publius Jr. on June 3rd, 2008 — in Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Blog
Barack Obama is now the “presumptive” presidential nominee of the Democratic Party. Â
The final day of the 2008 Democratic primary season ended with Barack Obama winning Montana and Hillary Clinton winning South Dakota.
The nomination came down to the last day and every vote was counted. This has been an amazing journey for the history books.
*************Â BOX SCORES ***********************
GAME 1 - South Dakota
Delegates:Â Â Clinton:Â 9Â Â Â Â |Â Obama: 6
% of vote:Â Â Â Clinton: 55%Â |Â Obama: 45%
vote totals: Clinton: 54,014 |Â Obama: 43,574
keys to the game: white middle class voters, Westerners, more rural, less historical racial division.
GAME 2 - Montana
Delegates:Â Â Clinton:Â 7Â Â Â Â Â Â |Â Obama: 9
% of vote:Â Â Â Clinton: 41%Â |Â Obama: 57%
vote totals: Clinton: 74,702Â |Â Obama: 102,373
keys to the game: white middle class voters, Westerners, more rural, less historical racial division.
************* SCHEDULE Â ************************
On to the General Election November 4th, 2004!
- Democratic Party National Convention: August 25-28, Denver, Colorado
- Republican Party National Convention: September 1-4, St. Paul, Minnesota
- Debates between John McCain and Barack Obama, to be determined.
- Much more ahead!
************* STANDINGS ************************
*Delegate Count: Obama clinches the nomination!
Obama: 2,158 (total), 1763 (pledged), 395 (super delegates)
Clinton:Â 1,926 (total), 1640 (pledged), 286 (super delegates)
Edwards: 6 (total), 6 (pledged), 0 (super delegates)
* Updated June 4, 2008, according to CNN.
2,118 delegates required to win the nomination.
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Posted by John Publius Jr. on June 1st, 2008 — in General Election Rules, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Blog
The Puerto Rico primary results are in: Clinton overwhelmed Obama 68% to 32%.
*************Â WRAPÂ ******************************Â
Today Hillary Clinton predictably and decisively defeated Barack Obama in Puerto Rico’s primary. Clinton gained 38 pledged delegates and Obama added 17, putting him within 48 delegates of clinching the Democratic Party’s 2008 presidential nomination.
This is a bit anti-climactic for the Clinton campaign. Yesterday’s Democratic Party resolution of the Florida and Michigan controversies ended yet another avenue for Clinton to change the outcome. Puerto Rico’s primary gave Clinton a net gain of 21 delegates, but this is much too little, much too late.
In her victory speech, Hillary Clinton ended by promising repeatedly to “keep on fighting”. Obama also gave an interesting speech today at the Corn Palace in Mitchell, South Dakota. Obama’s speech focused on defeating John McCain in November.Â
Tuesday finally marks the end of the road. Soon “every vote will be counted” and Hillary Clinton loses another “talking point”.
I am happy to see Puerto Rico and all states/territories have a voice in the nomination process.
Hopefully you already know this:
Puerto Ricans are full U.S. citizens. Puerto Rico does not have any electoral votes for the general election because it is not a state. Many Puerto Rican voters are residents throughout the 50 states, especially in New York City, Chicago, and other urban areas.
Obligatory demographic discussion:
Obama needs to continue to improve his standing among Latino voters, but he already has some solid Latino support as a strong base on which to build. Latinos typically vote about 60% Democratic to 40% Republican, and often even higher for Democrats. Of course, Puerto Ricans are a separate demographic box than Mexican-Americans and other Latinos, but the voting patterns are similar inside the bigger Latino box. Puerto Ricans are among the most loyal Democratic Party voters of any demographic group. Obama could easily get overwhelming vote percentages from Latinos in the general election against John McCain.
*************Â BOX SCORE ************************
Puerto Rico
Delegates:Â Â Clinton: 38Â Â Â Â |Â Obama: 17
% of vote:Â Â Â Clinton: 68%Â |Â Obama: 32%
vote totals: Clinton: 263,120 |Â Obama: 121,458
keys to the game: Latino working class voters, lower-middle income, Clinton name recognition.
************* SCHEDULE Â ************************
2Â primaries contests remain (the number of delegates at stake is in parentheses):
- June 3rd: Montana (16) and South Dakota (15)
Also, we are waiting for approximately 200 super delegates to announce their intentions.
The last day is Tuesday!
************* STANDINGS ************************
*Delegate Count: Obama needs 48 more delegates to clinch the nomination.
Obama: 2070 (total), 1741 (pledged), 329 (super delegates)
Clinton:Â 1915 (total), 1624 (pledged), 291 (super delegates)
Edwards:Â 13 (total), 13Â (pledged), 0 (super delegates)
* Updated June 1, 2008, according to CNN.
2,118 delegates required to win the nomination.
Note on delegate counts: each news agency has its own set of numbers. This is primarily due to the complex rules involved in awarding delegates to the candidates. I’ve been using CNN as a baseline, but this is somewhat arbitrary and not an endorsement of CNN. Their website updates the count frequently and I find it easy to use and informative. See MSNBC and FoxNews for alternative delegate counts.
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Posted by John Publius Jr. on June 1st, 2008 — in Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Blog, Democratic Party Rules
On Saturday, the Democratic Party’s Rules Committee finally settled on the new rules for seating delegates from Florida and Michigan.
The Rules Committee reduced its punishment of the Florida and Michigan state Democratic Party organizations. Originally, the Rules Committee stripped these states of all their delegates as a sanction for violating the rule of holding primaries before Super Tuesday. See my earlier posts in the category of “Democratic Party Rules“ for background information and opinions on the Florida and Michigan delegate controversies.
Also, read this summary from Yahoo! News and CNN’s summary.
New Rules and Numbers as of Saturday, May 31st:
- Basically, all delegates from Florida and Michigan will go to the Democratic Party National Convention in Denver, August 25-28, and participate in the formal nomination of the party’s presidential candidate. Each delegate from these states will have half a vote, instead of a full vote, granted to all the other delegates.
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- Clinton picks up delegates: 105 from Florida, 69 from Michigan, with a total of 87 votes.
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- Obama also gained delegates: 67 from Florida, 59 from Michigan, with a total of 63 votes.
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- Adding the Florida and Michigan half-vote delegates changes the “magic number”. 2118 is the new “magic number” of total delegates needed to win the nomination; the old number was 2,026.
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- The new rules move back the goal post for Barack Obama. Obama previously needed only 48 more delegates to clinch the nomination, now he needs 67.Â
****** LATEST STANDINGS ************************
*Delegate Count: Obama needs 67 more delegates to clinch the nomination.
Obama: 2051 (total), 1724 (pledged), 327 (super delegates)
Clinton: 1887 (total), 1586 (pledged), 291 (super delegates)
Edwards: 13 (total), 13 (pledged), 0 (super delegates)
* Updated May 31, 2008, according to CNN.
2,118 delegates required to win the nomination.
*****************************************************
Is everybody happy?
Of course not. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) and its Rules Committee have supporters of both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Both the Clinton and Obama camps came to Saturday’s meeting with proposals to resolve the Florida and Michigan disputes. Neither side got exactly what it wanted, but that’s the nature of compromise. Clinton gained more delegate votes than Obama, which was significant because the Rules Committee had the option to stick with its original decision to NOT seat any delegates from Florida and Michigan.
Nevertheless, the Clinton campaign continues to raise objections and argues that Clinton should have received an additional four delegates from Michigan. Here is an official statement from Clinton campaign operatives Harold Ickes and Tina Flourney:
Today’s results are a victory for the people of Florida who will have a voice in selecting our Party’s nominee and will see its delegates seated at our party’s convention. The decision by the Rules and Bylaws Committee honors the votes that were cast by the people of Florida and allocates the delegates accordingly.
We strongly object to the Committee’s decision to undercut its own rules in seating Michigan’s delegates without reflecting the votes of the people of Michigan. The Committee awarded to Senator Obama not only the delegates won by Uncommitted, but four of the delegates won by Senator Clinton. This decision violates the bedrock principles of our democracy and our Party.
We reserve the right to challenge this decision before the Credentials Committee and appeal for a fair allocation of Michigan’s delegates that actually reflect the votes as they were cast.
Conversely, Obama supporters argue that they were quite conciliatory toward the Clinton campaign. As reported in Yahoo! News:
Allan Katz, a Rules Committee member and Obama supporter, said the Obama campaign had enough votes on the committee to support the campaign’s proposal to split the delegates 50-50 in Michigan. Ultimately, the campaign agreed instead to support the compromise negotiated by the Michigan Democratic Party as a way to resolve the matter.
“The ironic thing is Obama had the majority of that committee,” Katz said. “The Obama campaign wants to move on and compromise. We did not muscle our way through it. It was a wise decision from a well run and wise campaign that will reverberate.”
Once Barack Obama clinches the nomination and exceeds the necessary total of 2118 by a comfortable margin, maybe his campaign will simply give Clinton the four disputed delegates as yet another gesture of magnanimity to further unite the Democratic Party. Of course, some day Hillary Clinton may finally accept that Barack Obama is the 2008 presidential nominee of the Democratic Party.
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