Will Obama win the white working-class vote in November?
Will all Democratics vote for Obama in November?
I don’t mean literally “all Democrats”. Even Obama Girl was too busy to cast her vote for Obama on election day. I mean “all Democrats” in the sense that John Kerry and Al Gore received overwhelming vote totals from people who usually vote Democrat.
Yes, I think Barack Obama will unite the Democratic Party voters. Only a small percentage of people who voted for John Kerry and/or Al Gore will not vote for Obama. These few will either vote for John McCain or just not vote. Of course, to become the next president, Obama must exceed the vote totals Gore and Kerry achieved.
Loading …The Democratic Party leadership certainly will unite behind Obama, and most Democratic voters will also vote for Obama in November. Obama also must win over overwhelming support from people who voted for Hillary Clinton. Recent polls show that this may be a challenge. However, the general election is more than five months away. Obama and the Democratic Party need to consolidate the Democratic base and expand it. The electoral map has been relatively static in recent elections. The Democrats need to change the map to include a few more states while maintaining their hold on previously-won states.
More Identity Politics: will white working-class voters support Obama?
Demographics discussions are not going to go away in 2008. The white “working class” or “blue-collar” or “ethnic” vote is always up-for-grabs in presidential elections. Another favorite term for this group is “Reagan Democrats“. The U.S. has had essentially a Republican majority since Richard Nixon defeated Hubert Humphrey in 1968. Jimmy Carter won in 1976 as a result of the Nixon administration’s Watergate scandal. Bill Clinton won in both 1992 and 1996 thanks to the ability of Ross Perot to cut into the Republican vote (he took Democratic votes too, but the estimate has been 2-1 more Republicans). Any Democratic candidate needs a strong percentage of the white blue-collar vote to win the presidency.
It’s the economy, stupid. People will vote on pocketbook issues and the war in Iraq.
Hillary Clinton and others have questioned whether or not Barack Obama will get enough votes among white blue-collar voters. One explanation is that white blue-collar voters are not necessarily “racist” or “bigoted”, but they perceive Obama as “culturally different” and even “too elitist”. I think that characterization of both the voters and Obama is a stretch and insulting.
I don’t want to be naive, and I realize racial division still exists. But, times have changed. The “culturally different” argument is a silly distraction. Most so-called Reagan Democrats are not as “square” as the older generation that uses words like “square”. White blue-collar voters like basketball more than bowling. Obama is as “American” as anyone else. Most real bigots usually don’t vote for Democratic presidential candidates anyway. If you voted for Bill Clinton, Al Gore, or John Kerry, you’re probably going to vote for Barack Obama. Not many people are going to vote against their own economic interests.
Obama has some work to do to deepen his connection with this important part of the Democratic coalition. We need to see if Hillary Clinton (and Bill) will help Obama win over this constituency once Obama becomes the official nominee. Obama has won some important labor union endorsements and this will continue. Perhaps Obama’s greatest strength is his extraordinary ablity to speak to the aspirations of so many from all walks of life. Obama’s message will resonate strongly with white blue-collar people: they want change.
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