10 Reasons Why Obama can win in November
This is only one possible scenario. For example, time will tell if Democrats fully unite for Obama.
- It’s the economy, stupid: people want change.
- The Iraq War: people want out.
- Stupid issues (e.g., flag pins, hating gays, guns) will take a back seat this time because we’re in a recession and stuck in a very unpopular war. (I know it might not be “technically” a recession. Millions of us don’t get overly concerned about the technical details when we’re struggling to pay our bills).
- John McCain’s political relationship problems: George W. Bush.
- A new generation: the political ocean is changing. Obama is riding this wave, making it bigger, and focusing it.
- Obama has and will continue to mobilize new voters.
- The Obama campaign’s GOTV (”get out the vote”) operation is impressive. I expect a very large turnout for Obama in November, thanks in part to the Obama organization’s ability to run a highly professional “ground game” with thousands of volunteers.
- Obama is the most charismatic U.S. political leader in a long time.
- Obama is highly intelligent. He can handle anything thrown at him, and he often responds with grace and wit. He can move discussions to higher ground in a way people understand and appreciate. Obama will, at a minimum, hold his own in debates with John McCain.
- People relate to him. He may be a clumsy bowler, but his jump-shot is excellent. Attempts to characterize him as “elitist” will largely fail. People remember that George W. Bush got away with defining himself as “a regular guy”. This kind of political trickery will not work in 2008. Obama’s story is as American as apple pie.
Also, see my other post, “10 Reasons why McCain can win in November“.
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Comment by bingham37
Posted on May 12, 2008 at 9:21 am
We’re technically not in a recession only due to some REALLY creative bookkeeping… like reclassifying fast food jobs as manufacturing jobs etc. http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/02/20/politics/main601336.shtml
Obama really does have an amazing talent for inspiring loyalty and passionate support from people. I think it’s because he is so different from most other American politicians… he actually prides himself on speaking the truth and being respectful to others. He’s just so darn classy… who *wouldn’t* want to be associated with him!
Comment by John Publius Jr.
Posted on May 12, 2008 at 1:25 pm
FYI - “recession” is defined as two consecutive quarters in which the gross domestic product (GDP) declines. The report on the 1st quarter of 2008 showed a very minimal increase in GDP. So if we’re technically in a recession, we won’t know officially until the 3rd quarter report comes out. As I wrote, most people are not “overly concerned about the technical details”.