Indiana, North Carolina Results Prove Obama’s Strength
The Indiana and North Carolina results are in.
Barack Obama defeated Hillary Clinton significantly in North Carolina (56% - 42%), while Clinton narrowly edged Obama in Indiana (51% - 49%).
As usual, it will take more time (probably several days) for the election geeks to calculate the precise number of delegates awarded from these contests. However, we already know that these results will give Obama a net gain in the delegate count of approximately 12 delegates, give or take a few.
I sense that this is finally over, despite the Yogi Berra truism, “it ain’t over ’til it’s over”.
The Clinton campaign can’t solve the delegate math problem.
Ever since Obama won 10 consecutive primaries and caucuses in February, delegate math has confounded the Clinton campaign. She has been too far behind since then and pinned her hopes on rebounding in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Unfortunately for Clinton, she was unable to mount any “blow-out” victories in these states. After much hoopla over her Texas victory, she ended up with only 4 more delegates than Obama. Ohio gave Clinton a net gain of 9 delegates, and Pennsylvania gave her 12 more delegates than Obama.
Once Obama created a wide lead in delegates, some pundits have argued that Obama’s nomination is virtually a mathematically certainty.
Hillary Clinton remained resilient and had one strong argument left: Obama has not been fully vetted, he has not yet been tested in the hard-knuckles politics of prolonged campaigning.
Obama has proven he can overcome adversity.
For the last eight weeks, the Rev. Wright controversy has dominated the election news, interrupted only occasionally with coverage of other minor Obama controversies. Barack Obama responded quickly, openly, forcefully, and repeatedly, beginning with perhaps an historically important speech about race. Obama candidly and effectively answered countless questions in press conferences, media interviews, town hall meetings, and the most recent debate.
By winning North Carolina and coming very close in Indiana, Barack Obama displayed Clinton-esque resilience. He too is “the comeback kid”, surviving political crisis and retaining wide popularity among voters. I suspect that this is precisely what the (approximately 250) undeclared super delegates have been waiting to see unfold.
Barack Obama today has more credibility as the “real deal”. The process may continue until the last primaries in Montana and South Dakota on June 3rd, but I expect we will see a significant number of super delegates commit to Obama very soon.
Kentucky, West Virginia, Oregon, and Puerto Rico are the only other remaining contests. The Clinton campaign realizes that Indiana and North Carolina were their last remote hope for “a game changer”. Yesterday’s results changed the game in the opposite direction: Obama’s nomination is virtually certain.
*Delegate Count: Obama increases lead over Clinton:
Obama: 1860 (total), 1592 (pledged), 268 (super delegates)
Clinton: 1691 (total), 1424 (pledged), 272 (super delegates)
* Updated May 9, 2008, according to CNN.
2,025 delegates required to win the nomination.
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