Democratic Party Crossroads: Big Tent or Little Boxes?
This 2008 historically close battle for the Democratic Presidential Nomination places the Democrats at an unexpected crossroads.
Many Democrats fear that the continued contest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will harm the eventual nominee’s chances to defeat Republican John McCain in the general election in November. As the unchallenged nominee of the Republican Party, McCain is consolidating his support and laying the groundwork for his campaign. Meanwhile Clinton and Obama continue to criticize each other as their supporters dig in to defeat their opponent within the Democratic Party.
Some Democratic Party leaders have called for Hillary Clinton to drop out of the race and endorse Obama. The argument is that she cannot win the nomination anymore and her continued running is only tearing Obama down and thereby weakening the Democratic Party’s chances to defeat John McCain. Another clear downside to the ongoing competition between Clinton and Obama is that they are spending millions of dollars that could be used against the Republicans rather than against each other.
Hillary Clinton is not going to drop out any time soon.
Hillary Clinton certainly has every right to continue running her campaign. In any case, she is almost definitely continuing now and aiming to win the Pennsylvania primary on April 22nd. She will probably continue at least until the final primaries on June 3. She may “take it all the way to convention” on August 25th in Denver. Neither Clinton nor Obama will win enough pledged delegates to win the nomination. The problems with Florida and Michigan have arguably given an unexpected advantage to Obama. Also, if the Democrats had “winner-take-all” rules in big states (which the Republicans have in some cases), then Clinton would likely be ahead in pledged delegates.
Clinton and Obama stand for virtually the same policies.
Usually, when a party’s voters are closely split between candidates, this is an ideological divide based on one or more policy issues. For example, 1976 Ronald Reagan represented a more conservative approach than Gerald Ford, and in 1980 Ted Kennedy represented more of the liberal wing of the Democratic Party than did Jimmy Carter. In two these historical examples, the opposing party won the general election. Some analysts believe that these historic precedents of closely fought party nominations are a bad omen for the Democrats in 2008.
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are both popular Democrats and represent the liberal/mainstream of the Party. There are some small policy differences between these two candidates. The most salient are health care and Iraq. On health care, Clinton proposes a universal system with a mandate to insure all citizens. Obama’s plan is very similar except that insurance is optional in some cases. On Iraq, the key difference goes back to 2002, when people in the U.S. debated whether or not to authorize the Bush Administration to invade Iraq. At that time, U.S. Senator Clinton supported authorization. Obama opposed authorization, but unlike Clinton, he did not have responsibility to vote on this measure because he was an Illinois State Senator at the time. Since the Iraq war began in 2003, Clinton and Obama have had virtually the same positions on Iraq policy questions. Obama attracted a number of voters based on his initial opposition to the Iraq war.
Little Boxes
Outside the nuanced differences on health care and Iraq, very few voters are making their choice between Clinton and Obama based on any other policy issues. The big split is based on personality, experience, and perhaps primarily “identity politics”. In other words, Clinton and Obama each attract voters based on demographic boxes. Clinton is especially popular among “white blue collar” voters and “older” voters. Obama wins a majority of “black” voters, “young” voters, and “professional” voters. “Latinos” are an important swing demographic. Analysts and campaign strategists further divide demographic boxes into smaller boxes, for example “young vs. old Latinos”, etc.
Or Big Tent
Both the Democratic Party and Republican Party are based on a “big tent” strategy. They are the two major parties because neither party is highly ideological. There is room in each “tent” for a variety of opinions. Voters generally decide which of the two tents best reflects their own views. The modern Democratic Party especially builds its big tent by attracting the majority of various demographic groups: union members, minorities, women, urban voters, etc.
Many Democrats will support the eventual nominee of the party. However, some supporters of Clinton and Obama have indicated that they will support only their candidate. In November, some Democrats may vote for John McCain, or Ralph Nader, or may simply not vote at all. Of course, this type of voter movement is typical, but the numbers are unusually high. According to a recent Gallup Poll, 28% of Clinton voters said they would vote for McCain over Obama, and 19% of Obama voters said they would vote for McCain over Clinton.
Most analysts expect these numbers to reduce once the Democrats have their official nominee. The November general election is still more than six months away. In the heat of this Clinton-Obama competition, some voters are especially passionate about their choice. The conventional wisdom is that a very large majority of Clinton and Obama supporters will vote for the Democratic Party nominee.
The continuation of the Clinton-Obama contest may be helpful to the Democratic Party for several reasons. Primaries are like “dress rehearsals” for the general election. It is a good opportunity to register new voters and get them to the polls. It keeps media attention on the candidates and builds excitement among voters in states that are often ignored. It enables both candidates to improve both their message and their ability to communicate with voters and the media. John McCain and the Republicans will use virtually any criticism Clinton and Obama make of each other. Now is a good opportunity to address those criticisms and to develop responses before moving on to the general election campaign.
Both Clinton and Obama would be wise to focus on demonstrating their ability to defeat John McCain. Whoever wins the Democratic Party nomination must consolidate support of Democratic voters. No Democratic Party nominee has won a large majority since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Some analysts claim that the mood of the U.S has shifted back to a solid Democratic majority now.
Clinton and Obama have a major responsibility to unite the Democrats. Democratic Party unity is a critically important prerequisite for winning the presidency in November. The Democratic nominee must get all the traditional little boxes under the big tent and then also win over a substantial number of independent voters.
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