Posted by John Publius Jr. on March 14th, 2008 — in Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Blog, Democratic Party Rules
Here are some important stories that have developed over the last few days:
- Geraldine Ferraro resigned from the Clinton campaign in the aftermath of her much criticized remarks on Obama and race. Link to Financial Times article.
- Barack Obama officially won more delegates in the Texas primary-caucus contest on March 4th. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote. It took over one week to tabulate the final delegate counts based on the March 4 results. It will take even longer to determine how to divide the final 67 Texas delegates. Link to Time Magazine article.
- Barack Obama is cutting into Hillary Clinton’s lead among super delegates. Link to Bloomberg article.
- Michigan: “do-over” primary is increasingly likely. Link to MyWay article.
- Florida: “do-over” is increasingly unlikely. Link to Washington Post article.
Preview of Upcoming Election Referee Posts:
- Old Time Religion (Part 1): Barack Obama’s Pastor Problem.
- Old Time Religion (Part 2): John McCain’s ties to controversial religious leaders.
- Democratic Party Crossroads: Big Tent or Little Boxes? Where is the Democratic Party headed in 2008?
- Tony Rezko corruption trial and its impact on Barack Obama.
- Much more!
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Posted by John Publius Jr. on March 12th, 2008 — in Referee whistle, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Blog
Geraldine Ferraro (a Clinton fundraiser and former Democratic Party vice-presidential nominee) made headlines with her comment: “If Obama was a white man, he would not be in this position”. Link to CNN article
Referee whistle: against Geraldine Ferraro, Illegal motion, 5 yards
2nd whistle: against Geraldine Ferraro, Delay of game, 5 yards
I don’t mind discussing the issue of race, but being a “white guy”, it is clear to me that “white” people are NOT at a disadvantage. I find it very disappointing when the issues of race or gender come up in this way. I called two “fouls” because: 1) this type of comment is an unfair excuse for why Clinton is behind, and 2) reiterating it is unnecessarily divisive, driving the election discussion into the political mud.
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Posted by John Publius Jr. on March 11th, 2008 — in Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Blog, Democratic Party Rules
The political football game between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama is very likely to go into “overtime”. As the primary calendar marches on, it is now virtually impossible for either candidate to amass enough “pledged” delegates to reach the magic 2,025 delegate score. (See the bottom of this article for a Quick Review of the Rules).
The current pledged delegate count*:
Clinton: 1,200
Obama: 1,347
Total: 2,547
To be determined: 706**
* As of March 10, 2008, according to CNN. Other news sources show different numbers which make it impossible for either candidate to reach the 2,025 delegate count via pledged delegates.
** Note: if there is a “do-over” for Florida and Michigan, the numbers will change, but the basic scenario of super delegates deciding the nominee will remain almost certain.
The remaining primaries and caucuses will determine the remaining 706 pledged delegates. Mathematically, neither Obama nor Clinton will gain the nomination through pledged delegates only.
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Posted by John Publius Jr. on March 7th, 2008 — in Referee whistle, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Blog
The Obama campaign has called for Hillary Clinton to release her tax records to the public. Hillary Clinton aide Howard Wolfson responded to reporters: “I for one do not believe that imitating Ken Starr is the way to win a Democratic primary election for president”.
Associated Press article: Clinton aide compares Obama to Ken Starr
Referee whistle: against Howard Wolfson, Offsides, 5 yards.
Comparing Obama to Ken Starr is clearly unfair and totally unjustified. Here we have another example of a campaign mistake that I see as a minor foul. “Minor” because the Clinton campaign has quickly moved away from this line of argument.
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Posted by John Publius Jr. on March 7th, 2008 — in Referee whistle, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Blog
During an interview with the Scotsman newspaper, Barack Obama’s foreign policy advisor, Samantha Power said about Hillary Clinton, “She is a monster too – that is off the record – she is stooping to anything”.
Link to the full story: Obama aide quits over Scotman interview
Referee whistle: against Samantha Power, Offsides, 5 yards
Samantha Power quickly apologized and resigned from the Obama campaign. In her apology, she even praised Clinton by stating that Hillary Clinton was “a role model for me and for so many women in public service”. Power fell on her political sword. She realized that her “monster” comment contradicted the message of hope and new politics espoused by Barack Obama and his campaign.
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Posted by John Publius Jr. on March 6th, 2008 — in Referee whistle, Talk Radio, John McCain, Blog
Now that John McCain is the Republican Party presidential nominee, we wonder if the right-wing attacks on McCain will subside.
Because our blogsite is so new, this is really a late call, but an important call to make before we move forward.
Referee whistle: against Talk Radio, Clipping (illegal hit in the back) , 10 yards
I listen to political talk radio almost every day: Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Mark Levin, and Laura Ingraham. When I refer to “talk radio”, this quartet of radio show hosts is a fairly definitive representation of whom I mean. I listen to other shows too: Michael Medved, Dennis Miller, Dennis Praeger, Michael Savage, Air America Radio, and some local shows.
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Posted by John Publius Jr. on March 5th, 2008 — in John McCain, Blog
John McCain clinched the Republican Party nomination with decisive victories in the March 4th primaries in Vermont, Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island.
The Republican Party nomination process had its share of interesting developments in 2008. In addition to McCain, the Republican field featured Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson (and a few others who had little impact). With the exception of Ron Paul, all of these candidates enjoyed at least some fleeting moments in the limelight as the potential front-runner.
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Posted by John Publius Jr. on March 5th, 2008 — in Referee whistle, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Blog, Democratic Party Rules
The Democratic Party primaries in Florida and Michigan earlier this year did not count. Now many people, including Democratic Party officials, are discussing the prospect of scheduling new primaries or caucuses in Florida and Michigan.
Referee whistle: against the Democratic National Committee, illegal block, 10 yards.
Yes, let’s have a “do-over” for Florida and Michigan.
The Democratic Party punished Florida and Michigan for moving their states’ primary dates to dates before Super Tuesday. The punishment was that these states would not have delegates at the convention.
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Posted by John Publius Jr. on March 5th, 2008 — in Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Blog, Democratic Party Rules
The most interesting primary season in U.S. history promises to continue after Hillary Clinton won three of four state contests last night.
I like how some of these days have nicknames, and March 4th was “VOTR” day (Vermont, Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island).
The March 4th Democratic primary and caucus results are still coming in. Complex state rules for awarding delegates make it difficult for election officials to quickly determine the correct delegate counts.
March 4th VOTR day was an opportunity for the Obama campaign to effectively end Hillary Clinton’s campaign. Instead, Clinton scored decisive victories in Ohio and Rhode Island. Obama won Vermont decisively. Then there is Texas.
The Texas hybrid primary-then-caucus is likely to result in a split decision, with Clinton winning the popular vote of the Texas primary, and Obama winning the Texas caucus. The final delegate “score” will be very close, and is already taking a while to calculate.
It seems that every headline about this year’s Democratic Party presidential campaign requires a footnote, some important clarifications, qualifications, and parenthetical details. Based on what the number-crunchers finally decide, the VOTR final “score” will probably not be Clinton 3, Obama 1. The final score will be more like: Clinton 2.5 states, Obama 1.5 states.
Of course, it’s all about DELEGATES!
In any case, March 4th VOTR day was another riveting chapter in the 2008 campaign story. Over the last week or so, a popular discussion has been, “Should Hillary end her campaign now?”. VOTR day put that question to rest.
Now the question is, “How long will this go on?”.
And more questions:
“Will this go all the way to the convention?”
“What about Florida and Michigan?”
“How will this impact the Democratic Party?”
Election Referee will address these questions soon.
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