Posted by John Publius Jr. on May 12th, 2008 — in Barack Obama, Blog
This is only one possible scenario. For example, time will tell if Democrats fully unite for Obama.
- It’s the economy, stupid: people want change.
- The Iraq War: people want out.
- Stupid issues (e.g., flag pins, hating gays, guns) will take a back seat this time because we’re in a recession and stuck in a very unpopular war. (I know it might not be “technically” a recession. Millions of us don’t get overly concerned about the technical details when we’re struggling to pay our bills).
- John McCain’s political relationship problems: George W. Bush.
- A new generation: the political ocean is changing. Obama is riding this wave, making it bigger, and focusing it.
- Obama has and will continue to mobilize new voters.
- The Obama campaign’s GOTV (”get out the vote”) operation is impressive. I expect a very large turnout for Obama in November, thanks in part to the Obama organization’s ability to run a highly professional “ground game” with thousands of volunteers.
- Obama is the most charismatic U.S. political leader in a long time.
- Obama is highly intelligent. He can handle anything thrown at him, and he often responds with grace and wit. He can move discussions to higher ground in a way people understand and appreciate. Obama will, at a minimum, hold his own in debates with John McCain.
- People relate to him. He may be a clumsy bowler, but his jump-shot is excellent. Attempts to characterize him as “elitist” will largely fail. People remember that George W. Bush got away with defining himself as “a regular guy”. This kind of political trickery will not work in 2008. Obama’s story is as American as apple pie.
Also, see my other post, “10 Reasons why McCain can win in November“.
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Posted by John Publius Jr. on May 12th, 2008 — in John McCain, Blog
This is only one possible scenario. For example, time will tell if Republicans fully unite for McCain.
- Inertia: the U.S. has had essentially a Republican majority since 1968. For John McCain to lose, 2008 would need show a major shift in the electorate.
- John McCain’s personal story of heroism, surviving as prison of war in Vietnam, is inspiring. Everyone must respect John McCain and his courage and sacrifice.
- Most Republicans will vote for McCain. The primary season caused some divisions among Republicans. The Republican base lacked a single favorite candidate and some dislike McCain’s refusal to walk in lock-step with conservative ideology as defined by the keepers of purity. Conservatives have no one else to vote for in 2008 and they like to vote.
- Attack dogs: talk radio and all right-wing media started smearing Barack Obama a long time ago. This will continue and greatly intensify.
- While the attack dogs to “the dirty work”, McCain can appear to rise above personal and unfair attacks on Obama. McCain simply needs to keep repeating, “Obama is a liberal”.
- McCain is a maverick. While this causes problems unifying the base, it creates opportunities to win over independent voters.
- McCain is popular and well-respected in the media.
- Although McCain supported the invasion of Iraq, McCain has credibility as a harsh critic of the Bush administration’s handling of the war.
- “The surge is working” in Iraq. This is probably not really true. But, if McCain convinces enough voters that this is true, he will neutralize the Obama’s second biggest issue (the first one is the economy, stupid!). McCain was largely responsible to push forward a new “strategy for victory”.
- Fear: an “October surprise” happens that scares enough voters.
Also, see my other post, “10 reasons why Obama can win in November“.
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Posted by John Publius Jr. on May 9th, 2008 — in Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Blog
Now that the campaigns are finally wrapping up and Obama is virtually certain to win the nomination, here is my short memo to the candidates and voters.
*** MEMO ***
When: June 4th (day after the final primaries)
To: Barack Obama, ask Hillary Clinton to be your running mate.
To: Hillary Clinton, say yes.
To: supporters of both candidates, push your candidate to form the “dream ticket”.
Cc: The Democratic Party, the news media
An Obama/Clinton ticket would be the single most inspiring political move the Democratic Party can make in the near future. I was born in 1963. For once in my lifetime, I would like to see the Democratic Party do something dramatically positive. The Obama/Clinton dream ticket would harness and unite the massive grassroots support of both candidates.
Obama and Clinton need to remember the most important lesson of this nomination process: ultimately this is about us, the voters, the American people.
Our aspirations and concerns are what matters, not the ego needs of Obama or Clinton.
I posted an article last month, Democratic Party Crossroads: Big Tent or Little Boxes?
The Democratic Party needs to build the biggest tent, the largest coalition possible in order to defeat John McCain. Obama and Clinton each have generated impressive enthusiasm from somewhat distinct, but more often, overlapping demographic constituencies. We all have discussed the voting demographic patterns. It’s time for the Democrats to try a new math equation: addition by addition.
Some speculate that Hillary Clinton would not agree to be second fiddle. I think she would and should. The Vice-President’s role has greatly expanded during the last two administrations. Al Gore is now one of the most popular leaders among Democrats by consensus. On the other hand, Dick Cheney is certainly powerful. Restoring people’s faith in the office of the Vice-Presidency is not a small task.
Barack Obama centers his message on the idea of uniting people to bring about positive change. Once he officially clinches the nomination, Obama’s first mission is to unite the Democrats. The urgency of now calls out for the Obama/Clinton dream ticket.
******
Blog Note to Readers: Share your thoughts - please post comments and vote in our opinion polls!
Also, this is not an endorsement of Obama or the Democratic Party. I hope that John McCain and the Republican Party inspire us as well.
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Posted by John Publius Jr. on May 8th, 2008 — in Opinion Polls - VOTE!, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Blog
Vote in our polls and keep posting your insightful comments!
Inform your friends about this website. I hope this is an inviting forum where people feel comfortable to “agree to disagree” while discussing very important issues.
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Posted by John Publius Jr. on May 7th, 2008 — in Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Blog
The Indiana and North Carolina results are in.
Barack Obama defeated Hillary Clinton significantly in North Carolina (56% - 42%), while Clinton narrowly edged Obama in Indiana (51% - 49%).
As usual, it will take more time (probably several days) for the election geeks to calculate the precise number of delegates awarded from these contests. However, we already know that these results will give Obama a net gain in the delegate count of approximately 12 delegates, give or take a few.
I sense that this is finally over, despite the Yogi Berra truism, “it ain’t over ’til it’s over”.
The Clinton campaign can’t solve the delegate math problem.
Ever since Obama won 10 consecutive primaries and caucuses in February, delegate math has confounded the Clinton campaign. She has been too far behind since then and pinned her hopes on rebounding in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Unfortunately for Clinton, she was unable to mount any “blow-out” victories in these states. After much hoopla over her Texas victory, she ended up with only 4 more delegates than Obama. Ohio gave Clinton a net gain of 9 delegates, and Pennsylvania gave her 12 more delegates than Obama.
Once Obama created a wide lead in delegates, some pundits have argued that Obama’s nomination is virtually a mathematically certainty.
Hillary Clinton remained resilient and had one strong argument left: Obama has not been fully vetted, he has not yet been tested in the hard-knuckles politics of prolonged campaigning.
Obama has proven he can overcome adversity.
For the last eight weeks, the Rev. Wright controversy has dominated the election news, interrupted only occasionally with coverage of other minor Obama controversies. Barack Obama responded quickly, openly, forcefully, and repeatedly, beginning with perhaps an historically important speech about race. Obama candidly and effectively answered countless questions in press conferences, media interviews, town hall meetings, and the most recent debate.
By winning North Carolina and coming very close in Indiana, Barack Obama displayed Clinton-esque resilience. He too is “the comeback kid”, surviving political crisis and retaining wide popularity among voters. I suspect that this is precisely what the (approximately 250) undeclared super delegates have been waiting to see unfold.
Barack Obama today has more credibility as the “real deal”. The process may continue until the last primaries in Montana and South Dakota on June 3rd, but I expect we will see a significant number of super delegates commit to Obama very soon.
Kentucky, West Virginia, Oregon, and Puerto Rico are the only other remaining contests. The Clinton campaign realizes that Indiana and North Carolina were their last remote hope for “a game changer”. Yesterday’s results changed the game in the opposite direction: Obama’s nomination is virtually certain.
*Delegate Count: Obama increases lead over Clinton:
Obama: 1860 (total), 1592 (pledged), 268 (super delegates)
Clinton: 1691 (total), 1424 (pledged), 272 (super delegates)
* Updated May 9, 2008, according to CNN.
2,025 delegates required to win the nomination.
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Posted by John Publius Jr. on May 6th, 2008 — in Comic Relief, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Blog
Video: John Stewart’s hilarious perspective of latest campaign news:
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Posted by John Publius Jr. on May 6th, 2008 — in Hillary Clinton, Opinion Polls - VOTE!, Barack Obama, Mainstream Media, John McCain, Blog
Just when I thought the Democratic Party nomination would only be a referendum on bowling vs. basketball, finally the media is covering a real issue: gasoline prices.
Gas prices impact most people much more than candidate flag pin accessory decisions. It is encouraging that we can analyze a real issue.
Hillary Clinton has joined John McCain in calling for a “gas tax holiday”, proposing a suspension of the federal tax of 18 cents per gallon of gasoline during the summer months. Many analysts and Barack Obama have heavily criticized this proposal. They claim that this “gas tax holiday” would have little economic benefit and encourage more gas consumption when our energy policy should instead focus on conserving oil and other energy resources. Clinton critics also decry this proposal as nothing more than political pandering. (Steve Brenan’s article is one example. If you can find someone praising the proposal, please post it in the comments - I always want to present “both sides”). Clinton has dismissed her critics as simply “elite opinion”.
For many people, a temporary elimination of the federal gas tax will not add up to meaningful savings. However, most people whose income depends on significant driving would welcome this relief.
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The “gas tax holiday” proposal is not a major issue, but it opens the discussion to a critically important one: U.S. energy policy. Everyone should know about the “peak oil” debate.
The candidates actually have much more substance than the goofy nonsense that dominates the media coverage.
Remarkably, unlike the websites for the Democrats, the “issues” section of John McCain’s website does NOT include “energy policy” as one of his issues. It does list “Second Amendment” (guns) as one of the major issues. I really try to be objective, but WOW!
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Posted by John Publius Jr. on May 6th, 2008 — in Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Talk Radio, Mainstream Media, Blog
Talk radio superstar Rush Limbaugh occasionally breaks out of his insular bubble and gains mainstream media attention. Recently pundits have been discussing Limbaugh’s latest effort, which he calls, “Operation Chaos: Rush the Vote“. Rush Limbaugh has been encouraging his Republican listeners (aka “dittoheads”) to vote for Hillary Clinton as a way to prolong the Democratic Party nomination process. The dittohead hope is that by keeping the Democratic contest going, the Democratic Party nominee will be damaged and the party will be further divided.
Cross-over voting is an interesting phenomenon and has been a political tactic for many years. It requires a bit a of sophistication in that people vote for someone they don’t want to be elected. I don’t fault people for promoting or engaging in this type of cross-over voting. People have the right to cast their vote any way they choose without providing reasons. One could argue that it’s “poor sportsmanship”, but I say “deal with it”.
Limbaugh argues, probably correctly, that Democratic voters helped John McCain win some primaries, especially in 2000.
Generally, this cross-over voting tactic has only marginal impact at best because relatively few voters actually vote this way. Operation Chaos may end up being the largest implementation of the tactic ever organized because Limbaugh has thousands of listeners in states still left to vote after McCain clinched the Republican nomination.
Today’s primaries in Indiana and North Carolina are probably the best test of Operation Chaos’ impact so far. My guess is that enough Republican voters will vote for Hillary Clinton to sway the contests by a few percentage points. Someone who is only an occasional dittohead might be confused because in the past they’ve been told to hate Hillary Clinton. Casual dittoheads might accidentally vote for Barack Obama. The vast majority of Republicans will not vote in the Democratic primaries.
Limbaugh goes beyond this call for “cross-over” voting. According to Wikipedia:
On March 27, 2008, Limbaugh said “The dream end of this [of Operation Chaos] is that this keeps up to the convention, and that we have a recreation of Chicago 1968 with burning cars, protests, fire, and literal riots and all of that, that is the objective here [of Operation Chaos].”
Hyperbole is the lifeblood of political talk radio and the Rush Limbaugh show especially. Obviously, sharing his wishes for violence is incredibly irresponsible to say the least. I don’t believe that Limbaugh actually believes most of the nonsense he projects. Unfortunately, probably some of his listeners take him literally and even agree with his most reprehensible proclamations.
Getting overly upset about Rush Limbaugh is like yelling at rain.
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Posted by John Publius Jr. on May 5th, 2008 — in Blog, Uncategorized
This website is dedicated to voter participation in fair elections. A primary task is to make election rules easier to understand. Additionally, we want to add our voice to the citizen arbitrators of election controversies as they arise. Elections are critically important to democracy. Unfortunately, disgraceful political tactics often result in focusing attention away from the many important issues we face.
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Posted by John Publius Jr. on May 5th, 2008 — in Referee whistle, Blog
We attempt to include a post on all the major controversies in the 2008 Presidential campaign (and beyond). As part of this website’s theme, we include a “referee whistle” call at the top of each of these posts. We are mainly concerned with determining whether or not someone committed a “foul”, which we define as unfair tactics by the campaigns, the media, or anyone. We assess a “penalty” using the imprecise football analogy, just to roughly estimate the severity of the unfairness. We hope you like our website regardless of your attitude toward football.
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